Leadership

The 70% decision rule: decide before you are certain

Most operating decisions get worse, not better, the longer you wait. A framework for deciding with the information you actually have.

Jeff Bezos popularised the 70% rule: if you have 70% of the information you wish you had, you have enough. If you wait for 90%, you are already too late, because the cost of indecision compounds invisibly while you keep researching.

Why the math favours speed

Every operating decision has two costs: the cost of being wrong, and the cost of waiting. Smart teams obsess over the first and ignore the second, which is a mistake because the cost of waiting is almost always larger than they think. A two-week delay on a launch is two weeks of opportunity cost, plus the second-order cost of every dependent decision that also slips.

The discipline of reversibility

Decisions are either one-way doors or two-way doors. One-way doors deserve deliberation. Two-way doors do not. If you can change your mind in a week with a small cost, decide now and adjust on contact with reality. Most operating decisions are two-way doors that get treated like one-way doors.

How to actually do it

When a decision arrives, ask three questions in order. Is this reversible? If yes, decide today. What is the worst plausible outcome? If you can live with it, decide today. What new information would a delay buy? If the honest answer is "more of the same," decide today.

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